Have Arsenal spent enough to guarantee Champions League qualification?
Arsene Wenger has broken the club’s spending record already this summer, but will it be enough to restore the Gunners to their former glory?
Premier League revenue is closing in on the £4 billion mark thanks to the latest TV deals.
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To put that into perspective, spending amongst the English top-flight’s teams has trebled from £28m to £75m per year since the first big-money sale of rights in 2012.
But what effects, if any, does this actually have on the competing teams? After all, Juventus made it to the Champions League final last season on a minimal spend – and what about Leicester’s title-winning season?
Inevitably, however, for the masses at least, success will always be linked with how much a team has forked out across the transfer windows. For further reading, Google ‘Arsene Wenger’ and ‘plane banner’.
Enter the boffins. If you’re ‘not a stats guy/gal’ perhaps look away now, but what follows does truly make for interesting reading – even if you do think it’s all coincidence.
Our pals at Sportingbet.com have analysed the last 10 Premier League seasons to reveal exactly how much money clubs should look to spend, based on the numbers, if they are to achieve their ambitions this upcoming season.
Does spending truly breed success? Let’s find out:
To break into the top four and finish in a Champions League spot, clubs typically spend £78m per year on average – perhaps explaining why Arsenal have been playing with fire and finally dropped out of qualifying for next year’s competition.
Spending £90m significantly improves a club’s chances of improving on last season’s points tally – 60% improve on the previous year’s performance.
To finish in the top six and qualify for Europe, clubs typically spend £65.1m per year on average – Everton have already smashed this average and stats say top six should be a near certainty next season. Anyone else feel like a quick punt all of a sudden?
Spending doesn’t guarantee success, but cutting back isn’t an option – 60% of clubs recorded less points in seasons they spent less than the previous year.
If a Premier League club spends less than £60m per season, they’re more likely to record fewer points than the previous season – 62% of clubs spending less than £20m drop points; 54% of clubs spending £20m-£60m drop points.
Premier League clubs should invest in a left winger, defensive midfielder and a centre-back to provide an immediate performance boost – something for fans to consider when they’re demanding a new striker, chanting ‘attack, attack, attack’.
Left winger: Top 20 spenders rewarded with 6.4 more goals and 3 additional points.
Defensive midfielder: Top 20 spenders saw a boost of 5.3 points and conceded 2.2 fewer goals.
Centre-back: Top 20 spenders conceded 2.2 fewer goals and gained 3 more points.