Supercomputer predicts Premier League top four race after Chelsea & Liverpool draw

Liverpool and Chelsea played out yet another forgettable stalemate on Tuesday night, but how did that result affect the top-four race?

The pair of struggling behemoths are not major players at the top of the Premier League this season, but Liverpool, in particular, have an outside shot of qualifying for next season’s Champions League.

The top-four race is set to go down to the wire, but will either of these sides stage a late season resurgence and threaten those above them?

FiveThirtyEight uses its Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings to predict every fixture throughout the Premier League season. Here’s who they think will finish in the top-four come the end of the 2022/23 campaign and qualify for the Champions League next season.

Projected 2022/23 Premier League top-four race



Current points

Projected points


Man Utd



















The supercomputer projects both Liverpool and Chelsea to miss out on the top-four by some margin. In fact, it doesn’t believe either side will finish in the top six. Liverpool are projected to finish seventh with 62 points (six points adrift of fourth spot), while Chelsea are predicted to be ten points worse off than the Reds in tenth.

The computer is backing Aston Villa and Brentford to finish above the Blues this season.

The top-four race is set to be a close one with Man Utd and Newcastle snatching the two all-important spots alongside Arsenal and Man City. Tottenham currently occupy fourth, but they’ve played more games than their rivals, and the computer is expecting Cristian Stellini’s side to notch just 13 points from their remaining nine games to finish sixth.

Brighton will secure their first-ever European berth and qualify for the Europa League. They’re projected to be four points adrift of Newcastle in fourth with the Magpies set to qualify for the Champions League for the first time in 20 years.

The supercomputer is backing United, despite their recent blip and upcoming fixture congestion, to enjoy a solid end to the domestic season and finish third by accumulating 19 points from their 12 remaining games.


On this edition of Talking Transfers, part of the 90min podcast network, Scott SaundersGraeme Bailey, Toby Cudworth & Tom Gott discuss Chelsea’s decision to sack Graham Potter, Man City and Real Madrid’s interest in Josko Gvardiol, the futures of William Saliba, Kai Havertz, Randal Kolo Muani & more!

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